Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Investigation

Of 185 developers who shipped an Investigation Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 317 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×1.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 317 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 317 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 185
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $6.1k → $2.7k → $6.3k → $9.3k → $1.0k → $2.6k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 185
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,578)
Top 5% $307k (exactly $306,627)
Developers, 2 yr 185
Released games 390
Announced 317
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 69,219 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 317 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers older $39.99 18,880 75% 566k $23M (exactly $22,650,336) Aesir Interactive
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Cyber Manhunt older $9.99 14,520 92% 436k $4.4M (exactly $4,351,644) Aluba Van+
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
The Operator older $13.99 8,515 91% 255k $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) Bureau 81
No Case Should Remain Unsolved older $6.99 10,332 96% 310k $2.2M (exactly $2,166,620) Somi
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Parcel Simulator $17.99 2,804 93% 84k $1.5M (exactly $1,513,319) Dansan Digital
Desktop Explorer $17.99 2,077 96% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) Recurring Dream
Subliminal $9.99 3,535 74% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,059,440) Accidental Studios
The Darkest Files $19.99 668 95% 20k $401k (exactly $400,600) Paintbucket Games
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.