Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Logic game?

Logic + Horror

Of 204 developers who shipped a Horror Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 232 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×207 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 232 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 232 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 204
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.0k → $1.5k → $1.1k → $899 → $899 → $599 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 204
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,777)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,204)
Developers, 2 yr 204
Released games 493
Announced 232
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $750, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 232 games are announced against 114 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.
Hello Neighbor: Hide and Seek older $29.99 1,217 87% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,094,935) Dynamic Pixels
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
Zup! S older $1.99 15,168 96% 455k $906k (exactly $905,530) Quiet River
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
Is this Game Trying to Kill Me? $14.99 1,513 95% 45k $680k (exactly $680,396) Stately Snail
The Inheritance of Crimson Manor older $19.99 907 87% 27k $544k (exactly $543,928) MediaCity Games
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
The Shell Part III: Paradiso $19.99 622 96% 19k $373k (exactly $373,013) Innocent Grey
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
The Cabin Factory $2.99 3,455 90% 104k $310k (exactly $309,914) International Cat Studios
Post Trauma $14.99 574 72% 17k $258k (exactly $258,128) RED SOUL GAMES
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Security 51 $9.99 454 71% 14k $136k (exactly $136,064) Alawar
We Escaped a Twisted Game $4.99 792 94% 24k $119k (exactly $118,562) Deluded Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.