Do I ship it?

Games › Souls-like › Souls-like + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Souls-like?

Souls-like + Historical

Only 19 developers shipped a Historical Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Nioh 3, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $24M, ×16507 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $92k → $330 → $299 → $20k → $539 → $769k (still earning) → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,440)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,236)
Top 5% $25M (exactly $24,728,167)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 71
Announced 43
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 21,875 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $24M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty 2023 · $25M Nioh 3 2026 · $25M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Wo Long: Fallen Dynasty older $39.99 20,873 49% 626k $25M (exactly $25,041,338) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
LIZARDS MUST DIE older $3.99 23,315 96% 699k $2.8M (exactly $2,790,806) Smola Game Studio
Achilles: Legends Untold older $24.99 2,149 77% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,105) Dark Point Games
Ukrainian Warfare: Gostomel Heroes $14.99 1,921 90% 58k $864k (exactly $863,874) Cats Who Play
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
Elder Legacy: Survival · EA $9.99 189 62% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Honor Games
Eydigard · EA $19.99 55 72% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Frostisen Studio
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
Samurai: Ronin's Path $4.99 79 56% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) GameHunters
Cult of Shadows $14.99 11 72% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Squirrel Tail Games
Redhelm Dynasty $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Tirazis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.