Do I ship it?

GamesSolitaireSolitaire + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Solitaire game?

Solitaire + Historical

Only 14 developers shipped a Historical Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sherman Commander, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×168 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Solitaire + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.8k → $14k → $16k → $1.7k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Solitaire + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $105k (exactly $105,265)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 50
Announced 9
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Solitaire
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 357 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Solitaire with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.3k · 9 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $2.3k · 3 announced
  3. + ManagementFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 17 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  5. + MahjongFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 6 announced
  6. + RomanceFair11 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  7. + CraftingFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationFair56 devs · median $718 · 46 announced
  9. + FantasyFair48 devs · median $479 · 39 announced
  10. + TacticalFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  11. + SportsFair14 devs · median $479 · 5 announced
  12. + Turn-Based CombatFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 77 pairs on the Solitaire page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Regency Solitaire older $11.99 559 96% 17k $201k (exactly $201,072) Grey Alien Games
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Sherman Commander $29.99 117 64% 3.5k $105k (exactly $105,265) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Regency Solitaire II older $14.99 210 97% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Grey Alien Games
Egyptian Senet older $9.99 200 81% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ezzat Studios
Pro Strategy Football 2023 older $14.99 71 84% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Kerry Batts
Pro Strategy Football 2022 older $12.99 81 86% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) Kerry Batts
Pro Strategy Football 2024 older $19.99 46 78% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Kerry Batts
Shadowhand Solitaire $13.99 64 90% 1.9k $27k (exactly $26,861) Grey Alien Games
Pro Strategy Football 2026 $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Kerry Batts
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Oracle 5000 $10.99 30 63% 900 $9.9k (exactly $9,891) Tripple Y, 疯狂地蛋工作室
Pro Strategy Football 2027 $24.99 5 60% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kerry Batts
Pazleum · EA $9.90 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,970) Pazl Studio
Battle Hanafuda · EA $7.99 7 100% 210 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) SUZUKI PLAN, Yoji Suzuki
Solitaire Deck $4.99 9 77% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Breach Games
Cozy Paintings $4.49 10 100% 300 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Eliary Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.