Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Historical

Of 29 developers who shipped a Historical Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×805 the market median. Revenue is up 2935% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 2935% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $599 → $390 → $3.0k → $239 → $629 → $37k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $418 (exactly $418)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,629)
Top 5% $506k (exactly $505,604)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 94
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2935% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 3,335 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $900, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $500k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
1348 Ex Voto $24.99 705 53% 21k $529k (exactly $528,538) Sedleo
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Gecko Gods $19.99 629 96% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Inresin
My Memory of Us older $17.99 632 92% 19k $341k (exactly $341,090) Juggler Games
Valiant Hearts: Coming Home older $14.99 529 62% 16k $238k (exactly $237,891) Ubisoft Da Nang, Ubisoft Montpellier
Juufuutei Raden™'s Guide for Pixel Museum $19.99 357 98% 11k $214k (exactly $214,093) Jupiter Corporation
Long Dream older $6.99 962 98% 29k $202k (exactly $201,731) WildMonkey
Scarlet Deer Inn $19.99 333 88% 10k $200k (exactly $199,700) Attu Games
Another Sight - Definitive Edition older $19.99 144 76% 4.3k $86k (exactly $86,357) Lunar Great Wall Studios
The House of Hikmah $19.99 61 98% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Lunacy Studios
火起雪中寺 $10.99 59 77% 1.8k $19k (exactly $19,452) 江湖奇事录
Pyramidion · EA $4.99 71 85% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) TechDevAYDIN
YinYang Street: Separate Ways $7.99 27 85% 810 $6.5k (exactly $6,472) 彼云工作室
Balling Up $3.99 39 79% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) RedKar Devs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.