Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Logic game?

Logic + Historical

Of 63 developers who shipped a Historical Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×805 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 71 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 71 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.2k → $776 → $1.9k → $7.1k → $2.7k → $718 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,353)
Top 5% $506k (exactly $505,604)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 214
Announced 71
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Logic; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Investigation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 24,664 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $500k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
The House of Da Vinci 2 older $19.99 2,051 90% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Blue Brain Games
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
The House of Da Vinci 3 older $19.99 1,303 89% 39k $781k (exactly $781,409) Blue Brain Games
Botany Manor older $24.99 1,028 94% 31k $771k (exactly $770,692) Balloon Studios
Europa Universalis III Complete older $14.99 1,372 85% 41k $617k (exactly $616,988) Paradox Development Studio
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Proverbs $8.99 1,786 96% 54k $482k (exactly $481,684) Mark Ffrench
The Shell Part III: Paradiso $19.99 622 96% 19k $373k (exactly $373,013) Innocent Grey
Worldwide Rush $19.99 559 77% 17k $335k (exactly $335,232) Memel Games
Juufuutei Raden™'s Guide for Pixel Museum $19.99 357 98% 11k $214k (exactly $214,093) Jupiter Corporation
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Pyramids and Aliens: Escape Room $12.99 191 81% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,433) mc2games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.