Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Hex Grid

Of 102 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×4.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×469 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 179 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 179 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $66k → $3.3k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $2.5k → $3.0k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,491)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $294,235)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 299
Announced 179
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 52% positive over 51,307 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Pit People® older $19.99 7,458 92% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,472,563) The Behemoth
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.