Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Hacking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hacking Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Hacking

Only 13 developers shipped a Hacking Visual Novel in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vtuber Hack, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×288 the market median. Revenue is up 460% on the market; 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 460% on the market, 32 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Hacking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $779 → $898 → $13k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Hacking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 5% $137k (exactly $136,925)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 42
Announced 32
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 460% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Hacking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Visual Novel
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You older $9.99 8,936 90% 268k $2.7M (exactly $2,678,119) Osmotic Studios
ANONYMOUS;CODE older $59.99 510 78% 15k $918k (exactly $917,847) MAGES. Inc.
Song of Farca older $19.99 1,385 78% 42k $831k (exactly $830,584) Wooden Monkeys
Analogue: A Hate Story older $9.99 1,696 94% 51k $508k (exactly $508,291) Love Conquers All Games
Orwell: Ignorance is Strength older $9.99 1,506 77% 45k $451k (exactly $451,348) Osmotic Studios
SIMULACRA 2 older $7.99 1,378 87% 41k $330k (exactly $330,307) Kaigan Games
MINDHACK · EA older $12.99 712 93% 21k $277k (exactly $277,466) VODKAdemo?
Replica older $2.99 2,972 85% 89k $267k (exactly $266,588) Somi
Quantum Protocol older $12.99 625 90% 19k $244k (exactly $243,562) Kaio Meris
Vtuber Hack $54.99 83 74% 2.5k $137k (exactly $136,925) ベルゼブブ
Venice After Dark $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Sebastian Grünwald, Weltenwandler Desig… (Sebastian Grünwald, Weltenwandler Designagentur GmbH)
Saku the Covert Agent $6.99 37 83% 1.1k $7.8k (exactly $7,759) Forward, 78Games
Forgotten 23 $12.99 14 92% 420 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) KovalGames
FutaPunk 🌚 $5.99 22 90% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,953) TheBigO Games
Cyberfuck 2067 $10.99 9 44% 270 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) Shinka AI Studio
Hamedori Hacker $8.99 9 77% 270 $2.4k (exactly $2,427) sephironsoft
Idol Hacked! $1.99 16 43% 480 $955 (exactly $955) theNeko
Pixel P.I. · EA $5.99 5 80% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Crischu
Autumn with the Shiba Inu $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Quill Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.