Do I ship it?

Games › JRPG › JRPG + Hack and Slash

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hack and Slash JRPG?

JRPG + Hack and Slash

Of 65 developers who shipped a Hack and Slash JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 94 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×13735 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 94 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 94 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Hack and Slash
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89k → $624k → $44k → $4.0k → $40k → $2.7k → $31k (still earning) → $34k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Hack and Slash: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,529)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $112k (exactly $112,388)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 252
Announced 94
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hack and Slash
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Hack and Slash; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Action RPG
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 66,022 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 5 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Monster Hunter: World 2018 · $285M NieR:Automata™ 2017 · $138M CODE VEIN 2019 · $83M Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition 2021 · $51M Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
CODE VEIN older $59.99 46,315 83% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,353,106) Bandai Namco Studios
Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition older $49.99 33,892 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,827,832) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
FINAL FANTASY XV WINDOWS EDITION older $34.99 44,933 83% 1.3M $47M (exactly $47,166,170) Square Enix
Nioh: Complete Edition older $49.99 29,580 78% 887k $44M (exactly $44,361,126) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Tales of ARISE older $49.99 27,643 86% 829k $41M (exactly $41,456,207) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
NieR Replicant™ ver.1.22474487139... older $59.99 21,493 88% 645k $39M (exactly $38,680,952) Square Enix, Toylogic Inc.
FINAL FANTASY XVI $49.99 24,065 78% 722k $36M (exactly $36,090,280) Square Enix
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream $59.99 2,021 64% 61k $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) Dimps Corporation
Lost Soul Aside™ $59.99 1,307 59% 39k $2.4M (exactly $2,352,208) Ultizero Games
Alabaster Dawn · EA $24.99 2,168 94% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,350) Radical Fish Games
Ys X: Nordics $59.99 890 76% 27k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.