Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement JRPG?

JRPG + Grid-Based Movement

Of 36 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 51 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×959 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 51 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 51 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $422k → $28k → $3.2k → $8.2k → $23k → $10k → $11k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,735)
Top 5% $602k (exactly $602,305)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 103
Announced 51
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Grid-Based Movement; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Character Customization
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,347 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 51 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Persona 5 Tactica older $59.99 1,526 74% 46k $2.7M (exactly $2,746,342) ATLUS
Labyrinth of Refrain: Coven of Dusk older $49.99 1,311 79% 39k $2.0M (exactly $1,966,107) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Zanki Zero: Last Beginning older $59.99 650 77% 20k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,805) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Etrian Odyssey HD older $39.99 963 88% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,155,311) ATLUS
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Etrian Odyssey III HD older $39.99 590 88% 18k $708k (exactly $707,823) ATLUS
Disgaea 6 Complete older $59.99 387 63% 12k $696k (exactly $696,484) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Wizardry: The Five Ordeals older $39.99 520 85% 16k $624k (exactly $623,844) 59 Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Path of the Abyss $6.99 664 92% 20k $139k (exactly $139,241) Suzuki Suzuzou
文字遊戯(日本語版) $34.99 74 90% 2.2k $78k (exactly $77,678) Team9, ESQUADRA,inc.
Touhou Spell Carnival $49.99 49 77% 1.5k $73k (exactly $73,485) Idea Factory, Compile Heart, STING
Heavy Spoilers RPG 2: Your best friend is actually the great demon king $8.99 122 93% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) KSBゲームス
HoloDungeon: Koyori vs HollowLive in Honsha Tower · EA $12.99 84 72% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) VELUX STUDIO
Dice 'n Goblins $13.99 55 90% 1.7k $23k (exactly $23,084) Tsukumogami Software

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.