Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Gothic

Of 63 developers who shipped a Gothic Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×8.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1454 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 81 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 81 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $138k → $18k → $7.3k → $2.5k → $3.8k → $7.1k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,077)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 168
Announced 81
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 46,383 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
The House in Fata Morgana older $24.99 6,057 94% 182k $4.5M (exactly $4,540,933) NOVECT
HENPRI $24.99 3,903 96% 117k $2.9M (exactly $2,926,079) Qruppo
Staffer Case: A Supernatural Mystery Adventure older $16.99 4,074 93% 122k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,518) Team Tetrapod
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Notch - The Innocent LunA: Eclipsed SinnerS older $9.99 3,152 95% 95k $945k (exactly $944,654) Angels Blue Digital Entertainment, Digi… (Angels Blue Digital Entertainment, DigitalEZ)
The House in Fata Morgana: A Requiem for Innocence older $14.99 1,768 96% 53k $795k (exactly $795,070) NOVECT
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
Schrödinger's Call $17.99 1,124 94% 34k $607k (exactly $606,623) Acrobatic Chirimenjako
Money for Girls: Amortized $15.00 795 98% 24k $358k (exactly $357,750) Porpentine
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Malleus Cocconum: The Heiress · EA $21.99 141 94% 4.2k $93k (exactly $93,018) Domus Aurea
Cage of Roses $12.99 190 88% 5.7k $74k (exactly $74,043) ebi-hime

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.