Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Gothic

Only 19 developers shipped a Gothic Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Necromancer's Tale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $660; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 48 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $270 → $3.0k → $5.0k (still earning) → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $659 (exactly $659)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,665)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 48
Announced 48
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,674 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $660, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $660. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darkest Dungeon® II 2023 · $29M Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters 2022 · $15M Iratus: Lord of the Dead 2020 · $6.5M Othercide 2020 · $4.1M Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager 2021 · $2.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Iratus: Lord of the Dead older $29.99 7,206 84% 216k $6.5M (exactly $6,483,238) Unfrozen
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Legend of Keepers: Career of a Dungeon Manager older $19.99 3,939 79% 118k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,218) Goblinz Studio
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
Dragon Star Varnir older $39.99 453 78% 14k $543k (exactly $543,464) Idea Factory, Compile Heart
Immortal Realms: Vampire Wars older $29.99 408 62% 12k $367k (exactly $367,078) Palindrome Interactive
绯红编年史 ~ Chronicle of Scarlet ~ $12.99 697 88% 21k $272k (exactly $271,621) Charge Piggy Studio
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Few Nights More $14.99 382 81% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Aeterna Ludi
The Fortress $6.99 151 68% 4.5k $32k (exactly $31,665) Baryonyx Games
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.
Ex Sanguis · EA $19.99 45 77% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Lightbulb Crew
The Dream Labyrinth $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) GGG`s
Ashes of Morgravia $11.99 43 67% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,467) background blur.
Seven Blasphemies $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Crit42 Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.