Do I ship it?

GamesGolfGolf + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Golf game?

Golf + Local Multiplayer

Only 14 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Golf game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, EVERYBODY'S GOLF HOT SHOTS, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×4.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2002 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Golf + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $3.0k → $4.5k → $40k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Golf + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,486)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,257,286)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 50
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Golf
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Golf, Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, PvP, Arcade
Price point
$12.49 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $12.49.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 1,676 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Golf with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair32 devs · median $1.4k · 29 announced
  2. + PvPFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  3. + AdventureFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  5. + PhysicsFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  6. + ArcadeFair40 devs · median $719 · 46 announced
  7. + 3D PlatformerFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair16 devs · median $539 · 17 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds14 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  11. + Mini GolfPoor odds38 devs · median $958 · 60 announced
  12. + SportsPoor odds67 devs · median $899 · 82 announced

All 18 pairs on the Golf page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
Golf It! older $8.99 24,695 90% 741k $6.7M (exactly $6,660,242) Perfuse Entertainment
EA SPORTS™ PGA TOUR™ older $69.99 2,156 56% 65k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,953) Electronic Arts - Tiburon
EVERYBODY'S GOLF HOT SHOTS $39.99 1,048 60% 31k $1.3M (exactly $1,257,286) HYDE, Inc.
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Worms Crazy Golf older $9.99 407 82% 12k $122k (exactly $121,978) Team17 Digital Ltd
Perfect Round Disc Golf older $19.99 88 78% 2.6k $53k (exactly $52,774) Tree Branch Games
Looney Tunes: Wacky World of Sports $49.99 34 79% 1.0k $51k (exactly $50,990) Bamtang Games
Infinite Minigolf older $14.99 113 72% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Zen Studios
100ft Robot Golf older $9.99 166 71% 5.0k $50k (exactly $49,750) No Goblin
Golden Tee Arcade Classics $29.99 45 86% 1.4k $40k (exactly $40,486) Digital Eclipse
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
True Disc Golf $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Sportsmanlike Games
Golftacular! $5.99 17 94% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Both Good
Mulligans Golf Game · EA $12.49 8 100% 240 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Indie Andy Games
Disc Golf $6.99 13 84% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Charles De Yoe
Desktop GOLF $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) SAT-BOX

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.