Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Futuristic
Should I ship a Futuristic Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Futuristic
Of 154 developers who shipped a Futuristic Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×6.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $97k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 206 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.8k (exactly $2,848) |
| Top 25% | $8.5k (exactly $8,533) |
| Top 5% | $97k (exactly $97,316) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 154 |
| Released games | 431 |
| Announced | 206 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 5,100 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative 2022 · $4.3M 
Soul Hackers 2 2022 · $4.1M 
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist 2022 · $3.3M 
1000xRESIST 2024 · $3.2M 
Baldr Sky 2019 · $2.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES - nirvanA Initiative | older | $39.99 | 3,571 86% | 107k | $4.3M (exactly $4,284,129) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
| | Soul Hackers 2 | older | $59.99 | 2,300 65% | 69k | $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) | ATLUS |
| | I Was a Teenage Exocolonist | older | $24.99 | 4,443 96% | 133k | $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) | Northway Games |
| | 1000xRESIST | older | $19.99 | 5,310 96% | 159k | $3.2M (exactly $3,184,407) | sunset visitor 斜陽過客 |
| | Baldr Sky | older | $49.99 | 1,524 93% | 46k | $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) | Sekai Project |
 | Projekt: Passion - Season 1 | older | $11.99 | 3,501 92% | 105k | $1.3M (exactly $1,259,310) | Classy Lemon |
 | Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 | older | $24.99 | 1,400 99% | 42k | $1.0M (exactly $1,049,580) | sprite, NekoNyan Ltd. |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | Neo Cab | older | $14.99 | 2,169 80% | 65k | $975k (exactly $975,399) | Chance Agency |
 | State of Mind | older | $19.99 | 1,548 76% | 46k | $928k (exactly $928,336) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Projekt: Passion - Season 2 | $11.99 | 1,005 93% | 30k | $361k (exactly $361,498) | Classy Lemon | |
 | Stellar Code | $24.98 | 448 97% | 13k | $336k (exactly $335,731) | Fragaria | |
 | Sexbot | $14.99 | 723 86% | 22k | $325k (exactly $325,133) | Llamamann Games | |
 | ToHeart | $19.99 | 313 87% | 9.4k | $188k (exactly $187,706) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | KANADE | $12.99 | 368 82% | 11k | $143k (exactly $143,410) | Frontwing | |
 | Galaxy Princess Zorana | $24.99 | 154 88% | 4.6k | $115k (exactly $115,454) | Hanako Games | |
 | COCORO | $24.99 | 147 90% | 4.4k | $110k (exactly $110,206) | Frontwing | |
 | City Lights Love Bites Season 1 - The Reset | $3.99 | 813 92% | 24k | $97k (exactly $97,316) | NaughtyOba | |
 | Villain's Legacy | $9.99 | 294 82% | 8.8k | $88k (exactly $88,112) | Mad scientist lab |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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