Do I ship it?

GamesTacticalTactical + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban Tactical game?

Tactical + Sokoban

Only 12 developers shipped a Sokoban Tactical game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 868-BACK, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $73k, ×117 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $599 → $2.9k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,095)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $73,163)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 37
Announced 12
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Tactical, Sokoban
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 403 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $73k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Football (American)Strong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced
  4. + 6DOFFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  5. + Word GameFair23 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  7. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $1.0k · 10 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  9. + Dynamic NarrationFair13 devs · median $899 · 16 announced
  10. + Farming SimFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  11. + SolitaireFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Fair20 devs · median $479 · 21 announced

All 226 pairs on the Tactical page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Backrooms Cats and Lava older $29.99 105 79% 3.2k $94k (exactly $94,468) Galactic Geckon
868-BACK $19.99 122 98% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Michael Brough
Loophole $9.99 154 99% 4.6k $46k (exactly $46,154) Levi Pinkert
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
Brain Break older $4.99 164 75% 4.9k $25k (exactly $24,551) Astralis Games
Slayaway Camp 2 $12.99 49 93% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Blue Wizard Digital
ALAN-13 Reformation older $15.99 34 82% 1.0k $16k (exactly $16,310) Viktor Kovács
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft
On the Peril of Parrots older $9.99 20 85% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Spritewrench
Icemaze Cave: Skate Escape older $5.99 24 95% 720 $4.3k (exactly $4,313) Ornbjorn
Black Pieces Move First $6.99 14 92% 420 $2.9k (exactly $2,936) Enchant Games
Götz $4.99 17 88% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Sleepy Seed
A Directionless Cycle $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Half Sun Games
Almost A Ghost $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) PNR Verse
Meme Merge 3D $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) PixelBrain Studios
BederSNAKE $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Yury Bederov

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.