Do I ship it?

GamesProcedural GenerationProcedural Generation + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Procedural Generation game?

Procedural Generation + Futuristic

Of 175 developers who shipped a Futuristic Procedural Generation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 290 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×374 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 290 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 290 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Procedural Generation + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 175
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $3.8k → $538 → $599 → $1.2k → $1.2k → $898 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Procedural Generation + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 175
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,341)
Top 5% $178k (exactly $177,511)
Developers, 2 yr 175
Released games 435
Announced 290
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Procedural Generation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Procedural Generation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 21,624 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 84 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 290 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Procedural Generation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SnowFair11 devs · median $3.0k · 16 announced
  2. + Traditional RoguelikeFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + DetectiveFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 30 announced
  4. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $1.3k · 23 announced
  5. + TypingFair26 devs · median $1.1k · 11 announced
  6. + IdlerFair98 devs · median $807 · 107 announced
  7. + LogicFair137 devs · median $478 · 149 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair57 devs · median $449 · 62 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair58 devs · median $418 · 56 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds31 devs · median $77k · 95 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds22 devs · median $30k · 35 announced

All 222 pairs on the Procedural Generation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
Due Process · EA older $9.99 6,558 83% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,965,433) Giant Enemy Crab
Terraformers older $19.99 3,031 88% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,817,691) Asteroid Lab
Red Solstice 2: Survivors older $14.99 2,585 70% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,474) Ironward
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Stars Reach · EA $29.99 322 52% 9.7k $290k (exactly $289,703) Playable Worlds, Inc.
Poetry of Blood: Eclipse · EA $14.99 406 91% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) ZeroGameStudio
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Widget Inc. $4.99 761 84% 23k $114k (exactly $113,922) Leaping Turtle

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.