Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Futuristic

Of 23 developers who shipped a Futuristic Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×225 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 49 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 49 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $7.4k → $60 → $1.2k → $599 → $6.3k → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $141k (exactly $141,206)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 62
Announced 49
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Combat, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SWORD ART ONLINE Last Recollection older $59.99 450 58% 14k $810k (exactly $809,865) AQURIA Co., Ltd.
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
Deathbound older $29.99 216 68% 6.5k $194k (exactly $194,335) Trialforge Studio
Beyond Galaxyland $14.99 314 85% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Sam Enright
Mato Anomalies older $14.99 131 70% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Arrowiz
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
False Skies older $8.99 104 91% 3.1k $28k (exactly $28,049) Feenicks
Strike Team Gladius older $24.99 28 89% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Wave Light Games Inc.
A Timely Intervention older $9.99 58 84% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Aldorlea Games
Nomads of the Fallen Star older $12.99 37 70% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,419) Huy Phan
Frameland: A Binary Tale $9.99 48 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,386) Team Frameland
G-MODEアーカイブス+ ゼノサーガ パイドパイパー $15.99 23 100% 690 $11k (exactly $11,033) G-MODE, Bandai Namco Entertainment Inc.
Fractured Core $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Engram Interactive
Journey of Resurgence · EA $17.99 11 81% 330 $5.9k (exactly $5,937) Stellar Realms Network
Twilight Epoch $13.99 11 90% 330 $4.6k (exactly $4,617) chimp
Elohim Eternal II: Son of Man $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) George Alexandros
Jerico Proxyma - Zsivanyur $7.99 5 100% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Steel Widow Klan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.