Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Futuristic

Of 131 developers who shipped a Futuristic Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×42 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 215 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 215 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 131
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $599 → $5.0k → $5.5k → $3.8k → $899 → $3.4k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 131
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $7.3k (exactly $7,340)
Top 5% $63k (exactly $62,968)
Developers, 2 yr 131
Released games 306
Announced 215
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 9,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.3k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 78 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Prey older $29.99 37,759 90% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,971,772) Arkane Studios
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
Deus Ex: The Fall older $9.99 3,762 37% 113k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,471) ·
Skin Deep $19.99 1,672 94% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698) Blendo Games
Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- older $39.99 710 88% 21k $852k (exactly $851,787) Laplacian
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Subside $24.99 513 96% 15k $385k (exactly $384,596) A2D Software
Newton's Fourth Law · EA $11.99 224 93% 6.7k $81k (exactly $80,573) Newtonian Studios
Moves Of The Diamond Hand · EA $19.99 105 100% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Cosmo D Studios
SQUAD XXX: Slut Hunt 🚨 $14.99 133 76% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Lewd Star
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
Alien Market Simulator $12.99 124 83% 3.7k $48k (exactly $48,323) Silly Sloth Studios, Kheddo Entertainme… (Silly Sloth Studios, Kheddo Entertainment)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.