Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FPS Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + FPS

Of 202 developers who shipped an FPS Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 369 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×1674 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 369 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 369 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 202
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $3.2k → $2.7k → $5.7k → $10k → $7.5k → $4.1k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 202
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,032)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373)
Developers, 2 yr 202
Released games 505
Announced 369
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 249,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 6 in 10 of the 125 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 369 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Prey older $29.99 37,759 90% 1.1M $34M (exactly $33,971,772) Arkane Studios
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
Kebab Chefs! - Restaurant Simulator $17.99 7,019 83% 211k $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) Biotech Gameworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.