Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Flight

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Flight Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Flight

Of 55 developers who shipped a Flight Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×924 the market median. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 115 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Flight
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $6.3k → $3.2k → $899 → $1.5k → $657 → $3.7k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Flight: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,499)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 192
Announced 115
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Flight; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 27,971 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
X-Plane 12 older $59.99 6,318 86% 190k $11M (exactly $11,370,505) Laminar Research
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator older $14.99 7,770 95% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,494,169) Luminite
Aerofly FS 4 Flight Simulator older $59.99 1,400 89% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,519,580) IPACS
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter $19.99 494 91% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) TruePlayers
Lakehopper · EA $9.99 479 88% 14k $144k (exactly $143,556) Photon Games
Nothing To Declare $9.99 234 76% 7.0k $70k (exactly $70,130) Rogue Duck Interactive
Legendary Pilots $8.99 223 66% 6.7k $60k (exactly $60,143) BerkBox
Glider Simulator $7.99 242 97% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,007) HFRK.
Airport Baggage Simulator $17.99 100 92% 3.0k $54k (exactly $53,970) Three River Games (3RG)
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.