Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Trading game?

Fishing + Trading

Only 15 developers shipped a Fishing Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×10 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1602 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 32 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $69k → $29k → $10k → $719 (still earning) → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,798)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,804)
Top 5% $761k (exactly $760,834)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 40
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.49

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing, Trading; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Economy
Price point
$7.49 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.49.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 4,760 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Russian Village Simulator older $29.99 889 84% 27k $800k (exactly $799,833) VD Games, PropilGames
Tiny Aquarium: Social Fishkeeping $7.49 3,386 95% 102k $761k (exactly $760,834) Lunheim Studios
Shoppe Keep 2 older $9.99 1,527 57% 46k $458k (exactly $457,642) Strange Fire
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio
Lure Of Passion $5.99 452 89% 14k $81k (exactly $81,224) Snakerser's Games
Land Of Idyllic Beauty · EA older $11.99 222 83% 6.7k $80k (exactly $79,853) Neo
Following Seas · EA $14.99 153 76% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Whipstaff Games
Harvest Days: My Dream Farm older $14.99 153 65% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Family Devs
Russian Village Simulator 2 $15.99 61 70% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) VD Games, PropilGames
Apocalypse: The Last RV · EA $4.99 159 68% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,802) 光年切片工作室
Pirate Cove Simulator $9.99 34 61% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Kool2Play
Man Made · EA $19.99 8 37% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Rule51
Fisher Idle $1.99 56 60% 1.7k $3.3k (exactly $3,343) Bahamut Games
Sea Town - Fish Market Simulator $3.99 27 48% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Alice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.