Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Fishing game?

Fishing + Romance

Only 14 developers shipped a Romance Fishing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Island Notes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $47k, ×99 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $19k; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×725 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 98.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $555k → $164k → $47k → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $19k (exactly $18,936)
Median $47k (exactly $46,792)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $135,696)
Top 5% $344k (exactly $344,495)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 35
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 2,316 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $19k, median $47k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $19k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  8. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  9. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  10. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced
  12. + Farming SimPoor odds84 devs · median $15k · 170 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Harvest Moon: The Winds of Anthos older $49.99 370 73% 11k $555k (exactly $554,889) Appci Inc., Natsume Inc.
Slow living with Princess older $19.99 580 87% 17k $348k (exactly $347,826) KADOKAWA, TSUKURITE.
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
World's Dawn older $9.99 736 80% 22k $221k (exactly $220,579) Wayward Prophet
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games
Orange Season $14.99 364 59% 11k $164k (exactly $163,691) Innerfire Studios
Summer Beach $24.99 181 66% 5.4k $136k (exactly $135,696) Sakura Cat
NTR Hunter $14.99 119 78% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Team18
Call of Boba · EA $12.99 125 67% 3.8k $49k (exactly $48,712) Tomatoast, Tomatoast
Shujinkou $59.99 26 92% 780 $47k (exactly $46,792) Rice Games Inc
My Heaven's Dale $11.99 66 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) DreamingCat
片腕のザリガニ - one-armed crayfish $3.99 180 99% 5.4k $22k (exactly $21,546) 斜塔ソンブレロ
Sky Harvest · EA $7.99 79 84% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Armored Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.