Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Fishing game?

Fishing + Psychological Horror

Only 13 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Fishing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, How to Fish, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×29098 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Fishing + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,731)
Median $5.3k (exactly $5,267)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $79,388)
Top 5% $14M (exactly $13,821,342)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 34
Announced 26
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Co-op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Surreal
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 62,708 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.3k, 1 in 4 over $79k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
How to Fish $7.99 57,661 95% 1.7M $14M (exactly $13,821,342) Dazed Games
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Fisher Online older $13.99 4,199 81% 126k $1.8M (exactly $1,762,320) R-Age LLC
Cryptmaster older $24.99 1,671 94% 50k $1.3M (exactly $1,252,749) Paul Hart, Lee Williams, Akupara Games
Fears to Fathom - Woodbury Getaway older $9.99 3,470 86% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,039,959) Rayll Studios
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Lakeview Valley older $14.99 710 82% 21k $319k (exactly $319,287) Roope Tamminen
FISH · EA $9.99 583 94% 17k $175k (exactly $174,725) dmcaguy
Manny's older $7.99 671 91% 20k $161k (exactly $160,839) Bonemeal Productions
Скуф на рыбалке $0.99 2,673 93% 80k $79k (exactly $79,388) KickedMesh
Loan Shark $3.99 635 84% 19k $76k (exactly $76,010) Studio Ortica
Whistling Waters $9.99 18 83% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) Luna Apps
Undesired Catch $3.99 44 86% 1.3k $5.3k (exactly $5,267) Ferran Costa Casanova
Unto the Aurora $4.99 22 86% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Arboreta Games
Public Fears - George's Farm $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Winchester
Neptune Island $1.99 29 68% 870 $1.7k (exactly $1,731) B0GWALK Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.