Games › Fishing › Fishing + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Fishing game?
Fishing + Mystery
Only 18 developers shipped a Mystery Fishing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Island Notes, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×6.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.3k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×725 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 48 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $959 (exactly $959) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.3k (exactly $5,267) |
| Top 25% | $76k (exactly $76,010) |
| Top 5% | $344k (exactly $344,495) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 48 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Fishing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Mining
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Emotional, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,789 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Fishing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FarmingFair
- + AutomationFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + EconomyPoor odds
- + CapitalismPoor odds
- + AgriculturePoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
Comparable games
DREDGE 2023 · $36M 
Fears to Fathom - Woodbury Getaway 2024 · $1.0M 
Island Notes 2025 · $344k 
Spindle 2025 · $189k 
On Your Tail 2024 · $175k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DREDGE | older | $24.99 | 47,624 95% | 1.4M | $36M (exactly $35,703,713) | Black Salt Games |
| | Fears to Fathom - Woodbury Getaway | older | $9.99 | 3,470 86% | 104k | $1.0M (exactly $1,039,959) | Rayll Studios |
| | Island Notes | $12.99 | 884 82% | 27k | $344k (exactly $344,495) | KangBaoGame | |
| | Spindle | $19.99 | 315 95% | 9.5k | $189k (exactly $188,905) | Wobble Ghost | |
| | On Your Tail | $19.99 | 292 87% | 8.8k | $175k (exactly $175,112) | Memorable Games | |
 | Manny's | older | $7.99 | 671 91% | 20k | $161k (exactly $160,839) | Bonemeal Productions |
 | Everdeep Aurora | $19.99 | 177 89% | 5.3k | $106k (exactly $106,147) | Nautilus Games | |
 | Loan Shark | $3.99 | 635 84% | 19k | $76k (exactly $76,010) | Studio Ortica | |
 | Water You Doing? | $7.99 | 294 59% | 8.8k | $70k (exactly $70,472) | DiSolve Studios | |
 | Tales from The Dancing Moon | $17.99 | 34 88% | 1.0k | $18k (exactly $18,350) | DjMonkey | |
 | Grove Fisher | $4.99 | 98 67% | 2.9k | $15k (exactly $14,671) | EVIL CORP GAMES | |
 | Undesired Catch | $3.99 | 44 86% | 1.3k | $5.3k (exactly $5,267) | Ferran Costa Casanova | |
 | Fish & Hike | · EA | $6.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) | Sleepwalking Potatoes |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.