Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Fishing game?

Fishing + Magic

Only 13 developers shipped a Magic Fishing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Quinfall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×28 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×7617 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 53 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 28.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 53 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $25k → $111k → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $13k (exactly $13,406)
Top 25% $122k (exactly $121,869)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 53
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 55% positive over 14,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 53 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + CapitalismPoor odds15 devs · median $23k · 18 announced
  11. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 3 Special older $39.99 734 94% 22k $881k (exactly $880,580) Marvelous Inc.
Seablip · EA older $14.99 1,078 81% 32k $485k (exactly $484,777) Jardar Solli
Mika and The Witch's Mountain $19.99 671 86% 20k $402k (exactly $402,399) Chibig, Nukefist
Ritual of Raven $14.99 325 88% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Spellgarden Games
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Loafing Town $6.99 531 85% 16k $111k (exactly $111,351) GoblinZz
The Wide Open Sky is Running out of Catfish $14.99 57 100% 1.7k $26k (exactly $25,633) ZIPIT! Games
Yollen $3.99 112 66% 3.4k $13k (exactly $13,406) axilirate
More fish - Idle Clicker $5.49 16 93% 480 $2.6k (exactly $2,635) Broad Street Indie Games
Words Of Power $15.00 5 80% 150 $2.3k (exactly $2,250) Tsuperion
Fishing for Numbers · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) 2xP Games AS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.