Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Fishing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fishing Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Fishing

Of 44 developers who shipped a Fishing Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×613 the market median. Revenue is up 355% on the market; 90 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 355% on the market, 90 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Fishing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $442k → $9.0k → $28k → $3.2k → $1.3k → $8.4k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Fishing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 25% $69k (exactly $68,804)
Top 5% $918k (exactly $918,382)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 95
Announced 90
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 355% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Fishing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 10,835 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Fisher Online older $13.99 4,199 81% 126k $1.8M (exactly $1,762,320) R-Age LLC
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
Farmer's Dynasty 2 · EA $24.99 1,225 72% 37k $918k (exactly $918,382) UMEO Studios
DORAEMON STORY OF SEASONS: Friends of the Great Kingdom older $49.99 324 90% 9.7k $486k (exactly $485,903) Marvelous Inc.
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Farm to Table · EA $14.99 645 91% 19k $290k (exactly $290,056) indieGiant
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.
Real VR Fishing $19.99 184 73% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Devs United Games, Inc
我的钓鱼世界 · EA $14.99 203 60% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) 华幸
Скуф на рыбалке $0.99 2,673 93% 80k $79k (exactly $79,388) KickedMesh

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.