Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Female Protagonist

Of 161 developers who shipped a Female-Led Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 237 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1009 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 237 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 237 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $13k → $6.7k → $4.6k → $2.7k → $17k → $6.3k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,070)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $47,494)
Top 5% $634k (exactly $633,866)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 498
Announced 237
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, RPG, Strategy
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 26,896 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 97 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 237 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
Fell Seal: Arbiter's Mark older $29.99 4,989 88% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,488,603) 6 Eyes Studio
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Artis Impact $18.99 2,308 84% 69k $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) Mas
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.