Do I ship it?

GamesSokobanSokoban + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Sokoban?

Sokoban + Female Protagonist

Of 23 developers who shipped a Female-Led Sokoban in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×229 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sokoban + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $401k → $9.2k → $2.1k → $2.1k → $2.2k → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sokoban + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,064)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $109k (exactly $108,827)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 67
Announced 31
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Sokoban; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 98% positive over 1,117 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sokoban with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CollectathonFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  3. + CatsFair15 devs · median $776 · 16 announced
  4. + LogicFair203 devs · median $718 · 176 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair143 devs · median $657 · 135 announced
  6. + PuzzleFair294 devs · median $599 · 288 announced
  7. + ProgrammingFair8 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  8. + 3D PlatformerFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + StrategyFair141 devs · median $539 · 125 announced
  10. + Puzzle PlatformerFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  11. + FuturisticLong shot21 devs · median $179 · 20 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds6 devs · median $19k · 16 announced

All 50 pairs on the Sokoban page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Void Stranger older $11.99 3,307 91% 99k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,528) System Erasure
Paper Trail older $19.99 726 94% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Newfangled Games
Paquerette Down the Bunburrows older $11.99 1,115 96% 33k $401k (exactly $401,066) Bunstack
Ittle Dew older $19.99 481 92% 14k $288k (exactly $288,456) Ludosity
Poke ALL Toads $11.99 447 100% 13k $161k (exactly $160,786) SpaceMatra
Treasure 'n Trio $14.99 242 100% 7.3k $109k (exactly $108,827) TNT
Theta and Paralldox on Worldlines $9.99 276 97% 8.3k $83k (exactly $82,717) XXela
Temple Of Snek older $14.99 102 90% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) Aetheric Games
Red Ronin older $7.99 119 87% 3.6k $29k (exactly $28,524) Wired Dreams Studio
AiliA $11.99 66 89% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) IceToad Studio LLC
Demon Corporation: Onboarding $6.99 42 95% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) A Shrine of Ludens
After Light Fades $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Orchid of Redemption
刻印战记1:法利兹传 $8.99 13 53% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) Lycian Studio
Karakurium $12.99 8 100% 240 $3.1k (exactly $3,118) Karaku Lab
NTR Neko Maid: Erotic Favor $14.99 5 100% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) ハーフトーンドット
Assassinvisible $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Club Tartine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.