Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Female Protagonist

Of 91 developers who shipped a Female-Led Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 165 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1032 the market median. Revenue is up 205% on the market; 165 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 205% on the market, 165 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $2.2k → $4.8k → $2.5k → $1.4k → $4.6k → $5.2k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,992)
Top 5% $648k (exactly $648,051)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 383
Announced 165
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 205% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, JRPG, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 23,489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 165 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
FINAL FANTASY XII THE ZODIAC AGE older $49.99 8,679 88% 260k $13M (exactly $13,015,896) Square Enix
Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 10,623 88% 319k $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) Airship Syndicate
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Sora no Kiseki the 1st $59.99 5,205 97% 156k $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) Nihon Falcom
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire older $19.99 14,659 87% 440k $8.8M (exactly $8,791,002) Obsidian Entertainment
STAR WARS™ Knights of the Old Republic™ older $9.99 28,518 90% 856k $8.5M (exactly $8,546,845) BioWare, Aspyr (Mac)
Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter $59.99 4,650 95% 140k $8.4M (exactly $8,368,605) Nihon Falcom
Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land $69.99 2,534 64% 76k $5.3M (exactly $5,320,640) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Kabuto Park $4.99 4,329 99% 130k $648k (exactly $648,051) Doot
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.
Ledgerbound $29.99 562 92% 17k $506k (exactly $505,631) OmniMegaSuperCorp
Tales of Xillia Remastered $39.99 392 76% 12k $470k (exactly $470,282) DOKIDOKI GROOVEWORKS, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.