Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Logic game?

Logic + Female Protagonist

Of 129 developers who shipped a Female-Led Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 175 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×494 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 175 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 175 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 129
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $3.6k → $4.8k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $959 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 129
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,160)
Top 5% $235k (exactly $234,656)
Developers, 2 yr 129
Released games 526
Announced 175
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Logic; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 40,656 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 105 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 175 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Agent A: A puzzle in disguise older $19.99 5,901 95% 177k $3.5M (exactly $3,538,830) Yak & Co
The Pedestrian older $19.99 5,173 96% 155k $3.1M (exactly $3,102,248) Skookum Arts
The Gardens Between older $19.99 2,362 93% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) The Voxel Agents
Taiji older $24.99 1,135 92% 34k $851k (exactly $850,910) Matthew VanDevander
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Botany Manor older $24.99 1,028 94% 31k $771k (exactly $770,692) Balloon Studios
Syberia - Remastered $29.99 724 70% 22k $651k (exactly $651,383) Virtuallyz Gaming, Microids Studio Paris
Murder by Numbers older $14.99 1,152 85% 35k $518k (exactly $518,054) Mediatonic
The Cabin Factory $2.99 3,455 90% 104k $310k (exactly $309,914) International Cat Studios
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games
Bat to the Heavens $14.99 407 95% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) ceroro
The Holy Gosh Darn $19.99 276 96% 8.3k $166k (exactly $165,517) Perfectly Paranormal
Poke ALL Toads $11.99 447 100% 13k $161k (exactly $160,786) SpaceMatra

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.