Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Fantasy
Should I ship a Fantasy Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Fantasy
Of 624 developers who shipped a Fantasy Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 835 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×8.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×644 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 835 games are announced against 361 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $839 (exactly $839) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,194) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $24,161) |
| Top 5% | $306k (exactly $305,952) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 624 |
| Released games | 2,325 |
| Announced | 835 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Fantasy
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, RPG, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Anime, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 33,114 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 403 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 835 games are announced against 361 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M 
The Wolf Among Us 2013 · $15M 
BlazBlue Centralfiction 2017 · $11M 
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M 
Sora no Kiseki the 1st 2025 · $9.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
| | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
| | BlazBlue Centralfiction | older | $39.99 | 9,476 94% | 284k | $11M (exactly $11,368,357) | Arc System Works |
| | Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales | older | $19.99 | 15,665 89% | 470k | $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Sora no Kiseki the 1st | $59.99 | 5,205 97% | 156k | $9.4M (exactly $9,367,438) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet | older | $19.99 | 15,461 79% | 464k | $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) | Dimps Corporation |
 | WITCH ON THE HOLY NIGHT | older | $39.99 | 7,231 98% | 217k | $8.7M (exactly $8,675,031) | TYPE-MOON, Lasengle Inc., Hunex |
 | Fate/EXTELLA LINK | older | $49.99 | 4,209 92% | 126k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,237) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | Fate/Samurai Remnant | older | $39.99 | 5,018 90% | 151k | $6.0M (exactly $6,020,095) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Riddle Joker | older | $34.99 | 5,715 97% | 171k | $6.0M (exactly $5,999,036) | YUZUSOFT |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | Sovereign Tower | $19.99 | 3,087 93% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,274) | WILD WITS GAMES | |
 | Summer Pockets REFLECTION BLUE | $49.99 | 1,231 91% | 37k | $1.8M (exactly $1,846,131) | VISUAL ARTS/Key | |
 | Kaiju Princess 2 | $17.99 | 3,107 96% | 93k | $1.7M (exactly $1,676,848) | PantyParrot | |
 | Ys X: Nordics | $59.99 | 890 76% | 27k | $1.6M (exactly $1,601,733) | Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH | |
 | Aurelia | $19.99 | 2,253 94% | 68k | $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) | MirthalGames | |
 | The Legend of Heroes: Kai no Kiseki -Farewell, O Zemuria- | $57.99 | 765 77% | 23k | $1.3M (exactly $1,330,870) | Nihon Falcom | |
 | Train45 | $10.99 | 3,823 97% | 115k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,443) | Elniko |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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