Do I ship it?

GamesAdventureAdventure + Spelling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spelling Adventure game?

Adventure + Spelling

Of 24 developers who shipped a Spelling Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×135 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 38 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Adventure + Spelling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $748 → $3.8k → $14k → $1.2k (still earning) → $9.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Adventure + Spelling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,887)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,168)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 70
Announced 38
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Spelling
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Adventure, Spelling; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 876 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SamuraiFair13 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  2. + FMVFair144 devs · median $39k · 151 announced
  3. + PinballFair11 devs · median $8.1k · 17 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair40 devs · median $6.3k · 50 announced
  5. + Escape RoomFair165 devs · median $2.2k · 151 announced
  6. + Mini GolfFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 11 announced
  7. + SportsFair228 devs · median $1.5k · 224 announced
  8. + GolfFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair384 devs · median $1.2k · 420 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair33 devs · median $599 · 33 announced
  11. + Traditional RoguelikeFair89 devs · median $449 · 119 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced

All 279 pairs on the Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
你已经猜到结局了吗 older $7.99 388 92% 12k $93k (exactly $93,004) 橘音
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio
WonderLang Polyglot $39.99 36 80% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) bair games
Words for Evil older $2.99 357 79% 11k $32k (exactly $32,023) Chromosphere Games
Pain Pain Go Away! $9.99 100 73% 3.0k $30k (exactly $29,970) Lorebard
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
Spiritual Bond ~Breaking the curse, Intertwining fates~ $5.99 98 82% 2.9k $18k (exactly $17,611) MONRA
WonderLang Spanish $24.99 20 80% 600 $15k (exactly $14,994) bair games
WonderLang French $24.99 19 84% 570 $14k (exactly $14,244) bair games
Pago Forest 2: Frozen Memories $9.99 43 88% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Futurtech
WonderLang Japanese $24.99 14 42% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) bair games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.