Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Spelling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spelling Roguelike?

Roguelike + Spelling

Of 25 developers who shipped a Spelling Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×8.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×510 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Spelling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $22k → $23k → $719 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Spelling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Median $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,578)
Top 5% $242k (exactly $242,097)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 34
Announced 29
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Spelling
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelike, Spelling; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Word Game, Deckbuilding, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 2,862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $4.2k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire older $29.99 405 52% 12k $364k (exactly $364,378) Appeal Studios, Balio Studio
Word Play $7.99 1,010 89% 30k $242k (exactly $242,097) Game Maker's Toolkit
スペルトナエル older $8.99 344 97% 10k $93k (exactly $92,777) おまど
Beyond Words $14.99 102 84% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) MindFuel Games
Гвалт $7.99 151 93% 4.5k $36k (exactly $36,195) maxter
TypInc. $9.99 102 74% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,569) Game Game Games
Birdigo - bird word game $9.99 78 84% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,377) John August, Corey Martin
Words Can Kill older $7.99 92 70% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,052) Typing Monkey
OMG Words $9.99 72 79% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Dave
Watchword $13.99 33 90% 990 $14k (exactly $13,850) Big Quail Games
Lexispell $8.99 31 93% 930 $8.4k (exactly $8,361) MrEliptik
LexiRogue $6.99 34 82% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) LaoWangDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.