Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Souls-like?

Souls-like + Fantasy

Of 225 developers who shipped a Fantasy Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 547 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×4732 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 547 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 547 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 225
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.7k → $1.4k → $3.9k → $4.9k → $7.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 225
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,917)
Top 5% $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414)
Developers, 2 yr 225
Released games 698
Announced 547
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 421,446 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $7.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 113 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 547 games are announced against 134 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Monster Hunter: World older $29.99 317,068 89% 9.5M $285M (exactly $285,266,080) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED older $39.99 100,222 92% 3.0M $120M (exactly $120,236,333) QLOC, FromSoftware, Inc.
DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin older $39.99 83,722 84% 2.5M $100M (exactly $100,441,283) FromSoftware, Inc.
God of War Ragnarök $59.99 32,502 89% 975k $58M (exactly $58,493,849) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
Avowed $49.99 12,653 76% 380k $19M (exactly $18,975,704) Obsidian Entertainment
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Solo Leveling: ARISE OVERDRIVE $39.99 7,662 70% 230k $9.2M (exactly $9,192,101) Netmarble Neo
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.