Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Exploration

Of 214 developers who shipped an Exploration Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 439 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×347 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 439 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 439 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 214
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $9.0k → $1.8k → $4.2k → $3.0k → $1.2k → $807 (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 214
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $217,764)
Developers, 2 yr 214
Released games 593
Announced 439
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Exploration; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 26,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 439 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Temtem older $44.99 31,263 82% 938k $42M (exactly $42,195,671) Crema
Mutant Year Zero: Road to Eden older $34.99 13,305 89% 399k $14M (exactly $13,966,258) The Bearded Ladies
Monster Sanctuary older $19.99 10,416 91% 312k $6.2M (exactly $6,246,475) moi rai games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
江湖十一 older $17.99 5,385 42% 162k $2.9M (exactly $2,906,284) 万象皆春
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
Stellar Tactics $24.99 1,666 77% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,249,000) Don Wilkins
Shao Song I $14.99 2,671 81% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,201,149) 互动之星, 猫眼娱乐
Beastieball · EA $24.99 1,483 97% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,805) Wishes Ultd.
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Destiny of Immortal · EA $11.99 1,763 80% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) LeiYun Games
Vultures - Scavengers of Death $17.99 532 81% 16k $287k (exactly $287,120) Team Vultures

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.