Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Logic game?

Logic + Dystopian

Of 37 developers who shipped a Dystopian Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×2426 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 80 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 80 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.7k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $6.7k → $1.2k → $2.2k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,465)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 106
Announced 80
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Logic; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Investigation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,328 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Phonopolis $24.99 1,537 92% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) Amanita Design
Submachine: Legacy older $24.99 1,281 98% 38k $960k (exactly $960,366) Mateusz Skutnik
Slice of Sea older $24.99 523 90% 16k $392k (exactly $392,093) Mateusz Skutnik
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
Machinika: Atlas $11.99 574 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,468) Littlefield Studio
ABRISS - build to destroy older $14.99 449 82% 13k $202k (exactly $201,915) Randwerk
Let's! Revolution! older $19.99 317 92% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) BUCK Games, Antfood
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas
PAGER $9.99 139 88% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) bilge
60 Minutes to Extinction: Escape Room $7.99 153 82% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,674) mc2games
Legitimate Space Corp Simulator LLC $12.99 82 69% 2.5k $32k (exactly $31,955) VHornet Games
What Awaits, Aleksey? $15.99 51 86% 1.5k $24k (exactly $24,465) JKBC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.