Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Dungeon Crawler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dungeon Crawler JRPG?

JRPG + Dungeon Crawler

Of 203 developers who shipped a Dungeon Crawler JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 248 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×333 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 248 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 248 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Dungeon Crawler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 203
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.2k → $20k → $4.3k → $3.2k → $4.8k → $13k → $7.2k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Dungeon Crawler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 203
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,618)
Top 5% $209k (exactly $208,986)
Developers, 2 yr 203
Released games 593
Announced 248
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dungeon Crawler
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Dungeon Crawler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 24,837 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 118 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 248 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom older $59.99 8,100 82% 243k $15M (exactly $14,577,570) LEVEL5 Inc.
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
Fear & Hunger 2: Termina older $11.99 14,232 97% 427k $5.1M (exactly $5,119,250) Miro Haverinen
Elin · EA $19.99 8,406 93% 252k $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) Lafrontier
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
Fear & Hunger older $7.99 20,881 94% 626k $5.0M (exactly $5,005,176) Miro Haverinen
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Tokyo Xanadu eX+ older $59.99 1,328 86% 40k $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) Nihon Falcom
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
BLACK SOULS II $13.99 5,277 97% 158k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,757) Eeny, meeny, miny, moe?
Aethermancer · EA $25.99 2,585 91% 78k $2.0M (exactly $2,015,524) moi rai games
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Nigate Tale $19.99 678 67% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Hermit Games, 2P Games
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
Legends of Dragaea: Idle Dungeons $9.99 976 86% 29k $293k (exactly $292,507) Blast Programming
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.