Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Dragons

Of 25 developers who shipped a Dragon Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×6127 the market median. Revenue is up 640% on the market; 41 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 640% on the market, 41 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $31k → $25k → $2.2k → $2.5k → $2.7k → $60k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,794)
Top 25% $63k (exactly $62,637)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 80
Announced 41
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 640% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Exploration, JRPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 6,514 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
DRAGON QUEST® XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age™ - Definitive Edition older $39.99 10,446 92% 313k $13M (exactly $12,532,066) Square Enix
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
LiEat older $2.99 4,036 96% 121k $362k (exactly $362,029) △○□× (Miwashiba)
Wayblazer Dämmerung $39.99 244 65% 7.3k $293k (exactly $292,727) Eushully
Crimson Tactics: The Rise of The White Banner older $29.99 245 46% 7.4k $220k (exactly $220,426) Black March Studios
Legends of Amberland: The Forgotten Crown older $19.99 284 94% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Silver Lemur Games
Beloved Rapture $19.99 237 82% 7.1k $142k (exactly $142,129) Rapturous Studio
Scarmonde $13.99 215 98% 6.5k $90k (exactly $90,236) Ephiam
Dark Quest 4 $19.99 136 75% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) Brain Seal Ltd
Dragon Ruins II $9.99 209 87% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,637) Graverobber Foundation
Prophecy of Ashen $9.99 201 76% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) hhyuGame
Umbra: The Last Summoner $29.99 59 72% 1.8k $53k (exactly $53,082) EpiRPG
Swords And Magic: Path Of Conquest · EA $9.99 128 77% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) ShadowMoon Wolf Game Tech Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.