Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Dinosaurs

Only 10 developers shipped a Dinosaur Immersive Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DDinosaur with Double D's, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×108 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 22 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 5% $162k (exactly $161,679)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 22
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 96% positive over 852 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 22 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dinosaur Fossil Hunter older $19.99 820 77% 25k $492k (exactly $491,754) ▲ Pyramid Games
Prehistoric Hunt · EA older $17.99 678 84% 20k $366k (exactly $365,917) Antiproto Studios
DDinosaur with Double D's $6.99 771 97% 23k $162k (exactly $161,679) Kud
Isles of Yore · EA older $19.99 127 69% 3.8k $76k (exactly $76,162) MaverickMatryoshka
Mutant Alley older $9.99 80 73% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) TailsUp4Tyranno
Go For Launch: Mercury older $9.99 59 81% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Joe Chisholm
Survive or Thrive older $1.99 233 98% 7.0k $14k (exactly $13,910) Randumb Studios
Tidy Up History $5.99 50 90% 1.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,985) Casual Human
Dinosaur Simulator older $8.99 18 50% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) Imperian Online - As
Primal Roar - Jurassic Dinosaur Era older $24.99 6 33% 180 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) Vipera Games sp. z o.o.
Curation $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Circle Back Games
Extinct Forest · EA $14.99 4 75% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Systemfehler Entertainment TS
Dino VR Experience · EA $9.99 6 33% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Virtual Factory srl
Breathbound $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) 十年
Dinosaur Zoo VR : Dinosaur Hunting $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) dani360_studios
Travel with dinosaurs $59.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BruceZhang
Dinosaur Hunting Simulator · EA $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games
Prehistoric Adventure · EA $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) B Rees

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.