Games › Visual Novel › Visual Novel + Detective
Should I ship a Detective Visual Novel?
Visual Novel + Detective
Of 320 developers who shipped a Detective Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 555 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×7.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×762 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 555 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,776) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $34,114) |
| Top 5% | $362k (exactly $362,139) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 320 |
| Released games | 979 |
| Announced | 555 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
- Detective
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, Interactive Fiction
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 55,097 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 169 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 555 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + City BuilderStrong odds
- + MusicStrong odds
- + TrainsStrong odds
- + Souls-likeFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + RhythmFair
- + JRPGFair
- + Immersive SimFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + GamblingFair
- + DiplomacyFair
Comparable games
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M 
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy 2019 · $32M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M 
Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony 2017 · $26M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | Persona 4 Golden | older | $19.99 | 71,306 97% | 2.1M | $43M (exactly $42,762,208) | ATLUS |
| | Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy | older | $29.99 | 35,628 97% | 1.1M | $32M (exactly $32,054,512) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
| | Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony | older | $39.99 | 21,978 82% | 659k | $26M (exactly $26,367,007) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. |
 | Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc | older | $19.99 | 36,194 96% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,705,542) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair | older | $19.99 | 30,961 95% | 929k | $19M (exactly $18,567,312) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction G… (Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd., Abstraction Games) |
 | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
 | The Wolf Among Us | older | $14.99 | 32,494 97% | 975k | $15M (exactly $14,612,552) | Telltale |
 | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko | |
 | The Incident at Galley House | $19.99 | 4,087 94% | 123k | $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) | William Rous, Evil Trout Inc. | |
 | Threefold Recital | $14.99 | 5,117 98% | 154k | $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) | Everscape Games | |
 | The Mermaid Mask | $19.99 | 2,776 99% | 83k | $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) | SFB Games | |
 | Desktop Explorer | $17.99 | 2,077 96% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) | Recurring Dream | |
 | No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES | $39.99 | 835 79% | 25k | $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) | Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd. | |
 | 再见断刀 | $9.99 | 2,563 92% | 77k | $768k (exactly $768,131) | 非侠游戏 | |
 | Staffer Retro : A Supernatural Mystery Quest | $24.99 | 922 89% | 28k | $691k (exactly $691,223) | Team Tetrapod | |
 | The Necromancer's Tale | $24.99 | 921 91% | 28k | $690k (exactly $690,474) | Psychic Software |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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