Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Detective

Only 19 developers shipped a Detective Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Necromancer's Tale, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $690k, ×1099 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $59k → $6.0k → $218k → $1.2k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,889)
Top 5% $690k (exactly $690,474)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 43
Announced 42
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Roguelite, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,601 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $690k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
The Necromancer's Tale $24.99 921 91% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Psychic Software
VARLET $59.99 121 47% 3.6k $218k (exactly $217,764) FURYU CORPORATION
Mohism: Battle of Words older $9.99 570 76% 17k $171k (exactly $170,829) 玄镜工作室
Rina's Undercover Train Operation $13.99 286 70% 8.6k $120k (exactly $120,034) Metamorphose
Company of Crime older $19.99 143 51% 4.3k $86k (exactly $85,757) Resistance Games
Slaughter Horse 2 · EA older $5.99 395 96% 12k $71k (exactly $70,982) Catfood McFly
Mato Anomalies older $14.99 131 70% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Arrowiz
The Magister older $14.99 103 91% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Nerdook Productions
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Augmented Empire $7.99 25 88% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Coatsink
Double It $5.99 23 91% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Anisage Games
Agent Dunoz $3.99 20 75% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) VIWESA GAMES
Hexa's Gone $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) DevloCore
Дейтсим Говна $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Traxmaster Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.