Do I ship it?

GamesParty-Based RPGParty-Based RPG + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Party-Based RPG?

Party-Based RPG + Detective

Only 11 developers shipped a Detective Party-Based RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FLAM EVAW, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 1510% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1510% on the market, 26 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Party-Based RPG + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $1.3k → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Party-Based RPG + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 5% $413k (exactly $412,987)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 29
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1510% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Party-Based RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Party-Based RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 95% positive over 1,406 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $410k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 26 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Party-Based RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Board GameFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Point & ClickFair17 devs · median $2.5k · 20 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair55 devs · median $599 · 42 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair15 devs · median $479 · 16 announced
  5. + Martial ArtsPoor odds5 devs · median $230k · 16 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $49k · 25 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $34k · 71 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $32k · 37 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds14 devs · median $21k · 28 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds67 devs · median $19k · 76 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds19 devs · median $19k · 51 announced
  12. + IncrementalPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 45 announced

All 111 pairs on the Party-Based RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
FLAM EVAW $9.99 1,378 95% 41k $413k (exactly $412,987) 北京万合瑞晟文化传媒有限公司
Mato Anomalies older $14.99 131 70% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Arrowiz
Pixel Noir older $24.99 70 72% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) SWDTech Games
Paramnesia: Escape Together older $8.99 43 90% 1.3k $12k (exactly $11,597) Suymo
Masonic Mysteries: Secrets Unveiled older $9.99 12 50% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Play Games Ltd
Banbard older $19.99 5 100% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Hoboayoyo, Team Banbard
Rod of Asclepius $19.99 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Worcco Arts
Mole or Not · EA $2.99 15 53% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) EY GAMES
ClusterCluck $2.99 6 100% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Glintzone Games
Paranormal Home Invaders $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Jaxon Cole
Project Microchip $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Gustsoft
Ambasu · EA $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Ekofi Gaming
Petrified $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Project Nova
Night Lotus $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DVL Vostok Games
探偵は月を見る $10.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) YUUIRO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.