Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Destruction game?

Destruction + Wargame

Of 32 developers who shipped a Wargame Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2761 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 62 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 62 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $600 → $959 → $44k → $2.6k → $537 → $479 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $44k (exactly $43,649)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 90
Announced 62
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction, Wargame; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Base Building, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 64,129 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Gunner, HEAT, PC! · EA older $29.99 7,603 91% 228k $6.8M (exactly $6,840,419) Radian Simulations LLC
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin older $59.99 1,867 55% 56k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,040) Frontier Developments
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
First Strike older $11.99 1,916 75% 57k $689k (exactly $689,185) Blindflug Studios AG
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Dawn Apart · EA $19.99 245 68% 7.4k $147k (exactly $146,926) Industrial Technology and Witchcraft
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
Good Kill! · EA $13.99 104 68% 3.1k $44k (exactly $43,649) gamegine
Battlefield Commander WWII · EA $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Sword of Steel
SGS Spain at War $29.99 25 88% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Warga… (Strategy Game Studio, Headquarter Wargames)

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.