Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Deckbuilding

Of 469 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 876 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×453 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 876 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 876 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 469
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $7.2k → $3.8k → $6.0k → $4.2k → $3.5k → $629 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 469
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 469
Released games 911
Announced 876
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 29,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 184 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 876 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M Monster Train 2 2025 · $6.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
Gordian Quest older $19.99 5,259 88% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,153,822) Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd)
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Yao-Guai Hunter $16.99 2,082 83% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,061,195) MyACG Studio
LONESTAR $12.99 2,183 90% 65k $851k (exactly $850,715) Math Tide
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Black Jacket $14.99 1,751 91% 53k $787k (exactly $787,425) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.