Do I ship it?

GamesJRPGJRPG + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding JRPG?

JRPG + Deckbuilding

Of 28 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×36 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $4.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2112 the market median. Revenue is up 320% on the market; 53 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 36.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 320% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
JRPG + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $5.4k → $121k → $32k → $23k → $82k → $31k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for JRPG + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Median $23k (exactly $22,772)
Top 25% $111k (exactly $110,956)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 75
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 320% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
JRPG, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Card Battler, Strategy
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 17,762 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.4k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.4k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds12 devs · median $54k · 6 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  3. + NinjaFair7 devs · median $19k · 10 announced
  4. + RomanceFair153 devs · median $13k · 164 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  6. + ManagementFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair41 devs · median $8.4k · 45 announced
  9. + LootFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair150 devs · median $4.2k · 157 announced
  12. + Artificial IntelligenceFair25 devs · median $4.0k · 21 announced

All 142 pairs on the JRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
SUPER DRAGON BALL HEROES WORLD MISSION older $59.99 1,404 82% 42k $2.5M (exactly $2,526,779) Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Lt… (Dimps Corporation, SAFARI GAMES Co., Ltd.)
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
NEOVERSE older $19.99 2,882 84% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,728,335) Tinogames Inc.
Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection Vol. 1 older $39.99 1,290 87% 39k $1.5M (exactly $1,547,613) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Voice of Cards: The Isle Dragon Roars older $29.99 1,277 80% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,148,917) Square Enix
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Wander Stars $24.99 148 92% 4.4k $111k (exactly $110,956) Paper Castle Games
Lythia: Sigil of Lust $24.99 109 75% 3.3k $82k (exactly $81,717) capture 1
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.