Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Dating Sim

Of 26 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×5.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $530; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×233 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $8.1k → $3.6k → $2.4k → $479 (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $525 (exactly $525)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,588)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,589)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 75
Announced 27
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle Platformer, Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,483 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $530, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $530. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Zup! Zero older $1.99 2,572 93% 77k $154k (exactly $153,548) Quiet River
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Wanna Make It older $10.99 293 97% 8.8k $97k (exactly $96,602) CQGAME
Rainbow Billy: The Curse of the Leviathan older $19.99 147 91% 4.4k $88k (exactly $88,156) ManaVoid Entertainment
FURRY SEX: Cabaret 💋🔞 older $6.99 299 71% 9.0k $63k (exactly $62,700) Furry Tails
Streaming ON! VTuber Training $6.99 105 65% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,018) Momentum Games
Body Pay "OMG! The girl with the big titties is too hitting on me!" $4.99 117 73% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,515) Cheese Burger Studio
버튜버 파라노이아 - Vtuber Paranoia $14.99 18 94% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) 유진게임즈
Nayla's Fable: Lust & Rust $5.99 43 88% 1.3k $7.7k (exactly $7,727) Sleepy Mog Studio
Park of Hidden Desires $2.99 40 82% 1.2k $3.6k (exactly $3,588) Inspite
SixteenPetals · EA $6.99 17 47% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Husky366Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.