Do I ship it?

GamesSolitaireSolitaire + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Solitaire game?

Solitaire + Dark Fantasy

Only 19 developers shipped a Dark-Fantasy Solitaire game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Forbidden Solitaire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $89 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 11 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Solitaire + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $899 → $30 → $150 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Solitaire + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $89 (exactly $89)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,155)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 44
Announced 14
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.50

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Solitaire; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.50 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2.5D, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.50.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 2,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $89, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Solitaire with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.3k · 9 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $2.3k · 3 announced
  3. + ManagementFair24 devs · median $1.2k · 17 announced
  4. + Immersive SimFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 9 announced
  5. + MahjongFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 6 announced
  6. + RomanceFair11 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  7. + CraftingFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  8. + SimulationFair56 devs · median $718 · 46 announced
  9. + FantasyFair48 devs · median $479 · 39 announced
  10. + TacticalFair25 devs · median $479 · 22 announced
  11. + SportsFair14 devs · median $479 · 5 announced
  12. + Turn-Based CombatFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 77 pairs on the Solitaire page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
Faerie Solitaire older $14.99 1,361 89% 41k $612k (exactly $612,042) Subsoap
Arcana Academy $14.99 67 71% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) 2A Studio
Decks of the Damned $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Thorian Games
Grime&Gold $4.99 66 95% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) Pemdora, Zakku, Spartaqui
Card Crawl Adventure older $4.99 63 80% 1.9k $9.4k (exactly $9,431) Arnold Rauers
Goldenjar Fall - Definitive Edition older $9.99 29 58% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Ardeal Studio
Tales of The Nightmares™ Episode One $4.50 53 88% 1.6k $7.2k (exactly $7,155) RedDot Studios
Satan's puzzle 666 older $2.99 48 81% 1.4k $4.3k (exactly $4,306) Silvestre Gore Art
Dracula Frames older $3.99 34 91% 1.0k $4.1k (exactly $4,070) Caio Flavio
Hell Builder $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Cuddle Code
Monster Girls Pieces $1.99 18 72% 540 $1.1k (exactly $1,075) Rodrigo Piedras
Brazzante $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) All Place
The Stare $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Fire Toast
Survivor's Dawn $0.99 3 66% 90 $89 (exactly $89) MatheusDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.