Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzle PlatformerPuzzle Platformer + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Puzzle Platformer?

Puzzle Platformer + Dark Fantasy

Of 58 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×265 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 136 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 136 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle Platformer + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $3.6k → $539 → $4.8k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.9k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle Platformer + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $8.4k (exactly $8,398)
Top 5% $166k (exactly $166,433)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 200
Announced 136
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 5,124 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $8.3k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceFair41 devs · median $1.5k · 38 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair20 devs · median $1.1k · 26 announced
  3. + Life SimFair20 devs · median $657 · 21 announced
  4. + SimulationFair216 devs · median $479 · 181 announced
  5. + Grid-Based MovementFair62 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  6. + SokobanFair51 devs · median $358 · 49 announced
  7. + LovecraftianPoor odds11 devs · median $9.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds26 devs · median $9.0k · 53 announced
  9. + MetroidvaniaPoor odds91 devs · median $5.3k · 264 announced
  10. + SwordplayPoor odds8 devs · median $4.2k · 19 announced
  11. + Split ScreenPoor odds24 devs · median $3.6k · 35 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds18 devs · median $3.0k · 80 announced

All 169 pairs on the Puzzle Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Last Campfire older $14.99 17,406 97% 522k $7.8M (exactly $7,827,478) Hello Games
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Praey for the Gods older $29.99 2,489 82% 75k $2.2M (exactly $2,239,353) No Matter Studios
MO:Astray older $14.99 4,058 92% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,883) Archpray Inc.
White Shadows older $19.99 1,877 81% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,125,637) Monokel
Bye Sweet Carole $24.99 1,039 72% 31k $779k (exactly $778,938) Little Sewing Machine
Greak: Memories of Azur older $19.99 994 79% 30k $596k (exactly $596,102) Navegante
Teslagrad older $9.99 1,709 83% 51k $512k (exactly $512,187) Rain Games
SILT older $14.99 793 79% 24k $357k (exactly $356,612) Spiral Circus Games
Selfloss older $24.99 258 75% 7.7k $193k (exactly $193,423) Goodwin Games
Fallen Tear: The Ascension · EA $24.99 222 81% 6.7k $166k (exactly $166,433) Winter Crew Studios
Everdeep Aurora $19.99 177 89% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Nautilus Games
Ayasa: Shadows of Silence $24.99 110 74% 3.3k $82k (exactly $82,467) Aya Games
Once Upon A Puppet $24.99 100 83% 3.0k $75k (exactly $74,970) Flatter Than Earth
He Who Watches $19.99 109 96% 3.3k $65k (exactly $65,367) Bobby Vanden
Beyond the Ice Palace 2 $19.99 77 63% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) STORYBIRD Studio
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Darkway: Murder of King Mere $7.99 78 97% 2.3k $19k (exactly $18,697) IM/MORTAL Studios, Pierce Papke / Ekpap

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.