Do I ship it?

GamesVisual NovelVisual Novel + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Visual Novel?

Visual Novel + Cyberpunk

Of 108 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 202 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×229 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 202 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 202 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Visual Novel + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 108
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $9.1k → $17k → $4.8k → $5.7k → $4.5k → $839 (still earning) → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Visual Novel + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 108
Bottom 30% $839 (exactly $839)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,480)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,735)
Developers, 2 yr 108
Released games 313
Announced 202
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Visual Novel; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Dating Sim, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 7,235 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 55 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 202 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Visual Novel with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds166 devs · median $54k · 146 announced
  2. + City BuilderStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds27 devs · median $18k · 24 announced
  4. + TrainsStrong odds12 devs · median $8.0k · 5 announced
  5. + Souls-likeFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  7. + RhythmFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  8. + JRPGFair219 devs · median $13k · 265 announced
  9. + Immersive SimFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  10. + SwordplayFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  11. + GamblingFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  12. + DiplomacyFair16 devs · median $5.4k · 19 announced

All 188 pairs on the Visual Novel page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
The Red Strings Club older $14.99 12,797 93% 384k $5.8M (exactly $5,754,811) Deconstructeam
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
Minds Beneath Us older $19.99 5,749 96% 172k $3.4M (exactly $3,447,675) BearBoneStudio
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Master Detective Archives: RAIN CODE Plus older $29.99 2,142 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,927,157) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
American Arcadia older $19.99 3,130 94% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,877,061) Out of the Blue Games
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
Sex & Blood: Vampires $9.99 759 71% 23k $227k (exactly $227,472) Taboo Tales 💘
Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 $19.99 341 96% 10k $204k (exactly $204,498) Strange Scaffold
HARDCODED $16.99 282 90% 8.5k $144k (exactly $143,735) Ghost Hug Games
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
TK Punk Gold $11.99 291 87% 8.7k $105k (exactly $104,673) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
PROJEKT GODHAND $15.80 158 96% 4.7k $75k (exactly $74,892) Anarch Entertainment
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.