Do I ship it?

GamesCRPGCRPG + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement CRPG?

CRPG + Grid-Based Movement

Of 26 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×15 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $960k, ×647 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 46 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $82k → $74k → $15k → $13k → $72k → $18k (still earning) → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Median $23k (exactly $22,789)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,048)
Top 5% $969k (exactly $969,362)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 97
Announced 46
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Grid-Based Movement; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 15,785 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.4k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $960k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.4k. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  10. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $19k · 27 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Wizardry: The Five Ordeals older $39.99 520 85% 16k $624k (exactly $623,844) 59 Studio
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Vaporum older $19.99 998 84% 30k $599k (exactly $598,501) Fatbot Games, s. r. o.
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
Tower of Mask $10.99 357 95% 11k $118k (exactly $117,703) Papertip Studio
Avernum 4: Greed and Glory $19.99 133 92% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Spiderweb Software
ANIWARS: Call of the Void · EA $12.99 184 93% 5.5k $72k (exactly $71,705) Breaker Interactive
Dverghold · EA $16.99 108 95% 3.2k $55k (exactly $55,048) Team Sorgarn
Cyclopean: The Great Abyss $9.99 163 89% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,851) Schmidt Workshops
A Kobold Story : Trenchcoat Adventurer $19.99 72 95% 2.2k $43k (exactly $43,178) Crystal Spider Games
The Darkness Below $16.99 78 80% 2.3k $40k (exactly $39,757) ELEFTHERIADIS SAVVAS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.